Bishop & Associates publishes two connector forecasts each year. Each eight-chapter report provides an in-depth, detailed forecast of the worldwide connector Industry. In addition to the detailed forecasts for each region of the world (North America, Europe, Japan, China, Asia Pacific, ROW), an industry overview is included which provides current market trends, industry book-to-bill ratios, and outlook narrative.

The worldwide and each regional forecast includes:

2010-2011: A New “Up” Business Cycle

Overview

Historically, the connector industry goes through business cycles that result in consecutive years of growth before experiencing a downturn. Since 1980, we have had five growth business cycles, including 2010, when a new business cycle started.

Connector Industry Business Cycles

These cycles are clearly visible in the following graph.

This data provides some interesting findings:

• Since 1980, the average growth cycle for the connector industry is six years.

• Three of the four cycles produced compound annual growth rates of 9.5% to 10%.

• The highs and lows have been more pronounced in the past 10 years – more volatility.

The strength of the 2010 recovery (sales growth of +28.4%), combined with the strong YTD growth of 9.8% through April 2011, suggests that we may be at the beginning of another up business cycle.

There are some troublesome HEADWINDS:

• High unemployment in the U.S. and Europe

• Heavy government debt, with the potential for defaults in some European countries

• High deficit spending in the U.S. and a stalled budget process in Congress

• Japan’s natural disasters and nuclear reactor problems

• Unrest in the Middle East and Northern Africa

• Housing market mired in recession-like condition

There are some promising TAILWINDS:

• Historically low interest rates

• Modestly improving worldwide GDPs

• Automotive industry recovery

• Stock market recoveries worldwide

• Double digit GDP growth in China and India

• Explosive growth in smartphones and tablets

• Increasing demand for bandwidth and speed in our communication systems

2011 Outlook

Based on current demand for electronics, we are raising our 2011 forecast from a growth of +6.7% to +8.5%. The following table forecasts connector demand by geographic region.

2011 Connector Forecast by Region
With Percent Change